Study featuring an ISMT lecturer reveals that GDP surpasses Euribor in the evolution of housing prices

2026-06-18

The scientific study entitled "Evolution of the Real Estate Market in Portugal in the 21st Century: An Analysis of the First Twenty-Five Years", published in the international journal Economies, is co-authored by Fernando Oliveira Tavares, a lecturer at the Instituto Superior Miguel Torga (ISMT). The research analyses the evolution of the Portuguese residential real estate market during the first quarter of the 21st century, using a time series econometric model based on data from 2000 to 2025.

The findings of the work, developed in collaboration with researchers Luís Pacheco, Margarida Carvalho, and Elisabeth T. Pereira, demonstrate that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) acts as the central indicator in the evolution of housing prices in Portugal. The study indicates that economic activity has a greater weight in defining transaction values, showing that Euribor rates lose statistical relevance when growth and credit variables are controlled. Market dynamics are also strongly influenced by mortgage financing conditions and indicators of household financial fragility, such as non-performing loans.

The analysis further reveals that the housing supply responds with a delay and in a limited manner to variations in demand. This structural rigidity, combined with construction costs, contributes to the maintenance of high prices, even in periods of lesser economic dynamism. The research concludes that coordination between housing policies, macroprudential measures, and income policies is necessary to respond to the structural challenges of the real estate sector at a national level.